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See which causes of death and disability are having more impact and which are waning. But he subsequently became one of its fiercest critics, arguing that its work is compromised by political influence from member states, which sometimes have an interest in presenting their countries’ health as better than it really is.69, “For health evidence to be useful, it also must be credible, generated by a scientific process unimpeded by political, financial, or other types of interference,” states the IHME’s website, which cites impartiality as one of the institute’s five guiding principles.70, It’s a bold proclamation, given the political and financial interests surrounding the IHME’s work—from the Gates Foundation, one of the most powerful actors in global health, to Big Pharma and Big Oil, which have been quietly pouring millions of dollars into the institute for years.71, An internal memo that Murray sent in early 2018 announced the creation of the IHME’s “client services unit” and added, “This development has the strong support of IHME’s Board, of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and of the University, all of which believe that engagement with the private sector will increase the global impact and reach of our work, as this sector has great influence over health.”72, Murray went on to sign a three-year, $1.5 million deal between the IHME and Chevron, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel companies, “to establish the Health Measurements Strategy for Global Corporations Program.” The same month, he published a paper in The Lancet Planetary Health announcing a new initiative looking at the effects of pollution and climate change—two areas where Chevron has had huge and negative effects on human health. “Who’s right? jQuery("#inline_cta_370047").html(inline_cta_text_370047); A spokesperson for IHME explained to Newsweek that the 90-day period refers to "the time it takes to scale up to full capacity for [vaccine] distribution. }, Gates has long been a fan of Murray’s work, including a 1993 World Bank study he coauthored on the global burden of disease. cta_1_check_370047 = true; magazine_button_text_370047 = ''; } That’s not possible,’ [the IHME says,] ‘Here are some numbers.’ You’ve naturally got yourself in an overpromising situation.”32, The IHME counters that “no estimate of a problem is interpreted as an estimate of no problem.” And in an e-mail, it defended its estimates as transparent and published with statistical confidence intervals that inform users about the limitations of its work.33, But Etzioni sees a pattern in the IHME’s pushing its findings into the limelight while relegating “key caveats and uncertainties” to the fine print. The most recent prediction from the IHME, which has come under tremendous scrutiny over the course of the Chinese coronavirus pandemic for its pattern of failed projections, shows 410,451 coronavirus deaths by January 1, 2021 — over double the 186,800 deaths currently reported in the U.S. from the start of the pandemic. VIDEO: People in Denmark Are a Lot Happier Than People in the United States. slotId: "thenation_right_rail_370047", }, Today the IHME’s sprawling estimates have become the gold standard for understanding an increasingly broad array of topics related to health and development—particularly in the data-poor developing world, where record keeping is sparse. The graphic below, provided by Statista, shows the spread of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. You publish the best work you can, then you see who over time falls out of view.”53, The Lancet also publishes estimates from other research institutes, Horton notes, creating a robust debate that has historically been missing in global health, including during the WHO’s reign as the leading purveyor of estimates. From the 1990s through to the early 2000s, it was the cause of greater than 1-in-3 deaths in several countries. Stéphane Helleringer, a demographer at New York University, says the overreliance on the IHME’s numbers may be inadvertently distorting global health through what he calls “circular research.”43, Because the IHME often doesn’t have clear data—for example, comprehensive records about malaria deaths in a given region—it makes estimates from other data points, such as the distribution of bed nets that protect people from malaria-carrying mosquitoes. The graphic below, produced by Statista, compares average COVID-19 case tallies in the U.S. and the European Union. You can read our Privacy Policy here. magazine_text_370047 = '

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'; While most scholars are lucky to publish one research article in The Lancet during a decades-long career, the IHME’s Murray has published more than 100.13 Population Health Building/Hans Rosling Center. Fueled by more than $600 million in funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation—a virtually unheard-of sum for an academic research institute—the IHME has outgrown and overwhelmed its peers, most notably the World Health Organization (WHO), which previously acted as the global authority for health estimates.7 To submit a correction for our consideration, click here. Traductions en contexte de "over time" en anglais-français avec Reverso Context : over a period of time, over a long period of time, change over time, time over, changes over time I have been a behavioral economist for over 40 years, lucky to be studying how psychology impacts … inline_cta_2_bg_color_370047 = '#cc0e0e'; After The Nation forwarded several scholarly reviews, the institute struck a different tone: “This criticism is not new…. 31. var inline_cta_text_370047 = ''; "We compare the historical performances of the DELPHI model with the top models used by the CDC over the last three months. if( inline_cta_text_370047 !='' ){ Historical model projections for a given country or region (currently supports IHME and LANL projections) More Info. A free inside look at company reviews and salaries posted anonymously by employees. Gates described his support of the IHME as designed “to make sure that everybody views this as the definitive source of information.” (The Gates Foundation and the IHME refused multiple interview requests and did not respond to most questions sent by e-mail. inline_cta_url_370047 = 'https://www.thenation.com/donate-website/?sourceid=1020084'; COVID-19 Projections: IHME is producing and regularly updating projections for total and daily deaths, daily infections and testing, ... over time. tn_loc:'atf' } magazine_button_url_370047 = 'https://www.thenation.com/email-signup-module-donate/'; Population Health Building/Hans Rosling Center. IHME uses a hybrid modeling approach to generate our forecasts, which incorporates elements of statistical and disease transmission models. magazine_button_bg_color_370047 = '#ffcf0d'; He notes that IHME board member Dave Roux, a cofounder of the private equity firm SilverLake, funds the award.66, “I see it as completely separate, personally,” Horton says.67, So does the IHME, which offered its own parsing: “IHME does not award the Roux Prize; it is the custodian of the prize.”68 tn_ptype: 'article', if( magazine_button_text_370047 !='' ){ (Thierry Monasse / Getty Imagese), Some experts are also reluctant to criticize the IHME for fear of upsetting the Gates Foundation, one of the most important funders in global health and academic research more generally. The CDC report noted Thursday: "The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 23 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Analyze updated data about the world’s health levels and trends from 1990 to 2019 in this interactive tool using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Instead of treating individual patients, he’s diagnosing the globe, using Big Data to show governments and aid groups which diseases need the most attention and money.20 placementName: "thenation_right_rail", With this interactive map, you can explore trends in life expectancy and mortality from 152 causes of death in King County at the census tract level. That’s their privilege, because that’s where they are in the marketplace.”88. March 26 projection: 81,000 U.S. deaths "over the next four months" (Range: 38,000 - 162,000). The novel coronavirus has infected more than 67.6 million people since it was first reported in Wuhan, China. Check out The Nation Shop and help support The Nation’s journalism while you complete your gift list. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) creates, maintains, updates, and publishes an open-source statistical model of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, based on open-data resources. jQuery("#magazine_button_370047 a").attr("href",magazine_button_url_370047); One former IHME employee, asking to speak anonymously, says the foundation regularly requests bespoke charts and graphs for Gates’s presentations and conferences, prompting entire teams of IHME researchers to drop everything else77, “It really did feel like we were consultants for the Gates Foundation, and the scientific methods we used were often in service of getting the results we wanted…or the story he [Murray] thought the Gates Foundation wanted,” the source continues. But this reckoning has come only because the high stakes of Covid have brought a new level of scrutiny and competition from other researchers and because the institute has had to contend with the emergence of actual data on infections and deaths.30, In much of the IHME’s other work in health metrics, these feedback mechanisms do not come to bear in the same way, even though its estimates may be just as influential and, in some cases, just as wrong. “What happened early in the summer when the IHME revised its estimate downward dramatically (which served the White House and consequently gave the IHME huge press) and…then turned out to be utterly wrong was nothing short of a debacle.”35 WHO has continued to provide data to IHME, to collaborate in a number of areas, and to assess and make use of IHME GBD results to the extent possible. Even in research fields that the foundation funds, scholars appear increasingly willing to voice criticism of the IHME, including assertions that the powerful triumvirate of Gates, Horton, and Murray has advanced its work in a way that routinely sidesteps the checks and balances that govern scientific enterprise.17, “Who is making such criticism, and where has the criticism been published or stated publicly?” an IHME spokesperson responded when asked about the institute’s controversial reputation. Jobs; Jobs Tips; How to Get a Job; 11 Recession-Proof Jobs; The Perfect Resume Looks Like This; How to Write A Cover Letter; 9 Attention-Grabbing Cover Letter Examples; Quiz: What Job Best Fits Your Life? The Gates Millepus: A Thousand Tentacles of Money Entwine the Nation April 30, 2020/54 Comments/in Featured Articles /by George Mackenzie Learning how Bill Gates and a bunch of patent attorneys and mad scientists through the Institute for Disease Modeling (Mongering) are advising Oregon’s Governor Kate Brown in her continuing lockdown apocalypse on the economy and people of the state, I… In the visualization we see the change in the share of deaths from HIV/AIDS over time. if( is_user_logged_in != null ){ Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation boosts vital work of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. inline_cta_url_370047 = 'https://www.thenation.com/donate-website/?sourceid=1020084'; jQuery("#inline_cta_2_btn_370047 a").attr("href",inline_cta_2_url_370047); And that produces a concentration of…power that should make anybody uncomfortable.”9, Critics say this monopoly power can be seen in the ways the IHME appears to play by a different set of rules from the rest of the scientific community. “For the job of administering the normative database, he’s not absolutely the perfect person.”25, To be sure, the field of global health is littered with war stories of researchers who have had run-ins and blowups with Murray, many of them beginning the same way: with a request to Murray to show his work. cta_2_check_370047 = true;   According to the Web of Science database, more than 20,000 academic papers cite funding from the Gates Foundation, which has poured over $8 billion into universities in the past two decades, according to The Nation’s analysis of its charitable giving. The graphic below, produced by Statista, shows the distribution of COVID-19 deaths among the U.S. population. “I saw…that 12 million children are dying every year,” Gates told Scientific American in 2014. } var inline_cta_button_text_370047 = ''; } But you think about it as, ‘How would we express our concerns? “You could sign on as a collaborator to IHME, and they’ll send out draft papers to you,” he explains. A free inside look at company reviews and salaries posted anonymously by employees. Years before Covid, the IHME gained outsize influence by tracking hundreds of diseases across the planet and producing some of the most cited studies in all of science.6, But it has also spawned a legion of detractors who call the IHME a monopoly and a juggernaut and charge the group has surrounded itself with a constellation of high-profile allies that have made it too big to peer review, the traditional method of self-regulation in science. It was a striking conflict of interest that raised eyebrows among scholars but virtually no public criticism. } Gates’s influence over the IHME can also be seen in a map of Seattle. (SOURCE: 2018 budget report from the IHME’s Client Services Unit, released through public records request; data may be provisional), Hidden underwriters: Though virtually all scientific journals require disclosure of financial conflicts of interest, the IHME does not appear to have ever disclosed the millions of dollars it has received from Big Pharma and Big Oil. var magazine_button_bg_color_370047 = ''; “The reason why it’s very important to publish these papers in our journal is because it holds IHME accountable,” he says in an interview. “It’s a kind of monopoly of knowledge production, of how to know global health trends in the world. if( magazine_button_bg_color_370047 !='' ){ “He knows that deaths translate into money for child health programs. That’s the only question. }else{ inline_cta_2_bg_color_370047 = '#cc0e0e'; Here For You During COVID-19 NEW! cta_2_check_370047 = true; (Thierry Monasse / Getty Imagese), The “Bill Chill”: Some experts are reluctant to criticize the IHME for fear of upsetting Gates, whose foundation is one of the most important funders in global health. Current Issue Over 9,000 new U.S. COVID-19 deaths are projected for the week of Christmas, according to the latest forecasts published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These citations boost The Lancet’s growing impact factor and have also likely increased subscriptions and advertising revenue for its for-profit publisher, Elsevier.52, Horton acknowledges the “very special relationship” The Lancet has with the IHME but defends it as good science. Purpose. “I think that a lot of states reopened based on their modeling.”3, The IHME brushed aside the widespread criticism that emerged—“Many people do not understand how modeling works,” its director, Chris Murray, explained in a Los Angeles Times op-ed—and continued to push headline-grabbing projections that drew alarm from its peers.

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